By 2050, 70% of the world's population, approximately 6.8 billion people, is expected to live in urban areas. This is predicted to increase urban mobility demand by 60-70% by 2050. Meanwhile, the transportation sector is one of the major producers of global carbon emissions, which may account for 40% of the total by 2030 (UITP Better Urban Mobility Playbook). These and many other data points indicate the need for alternative actions.
Among these alternatives, clean vehicles, particularly electric vehicles, play a significant role in public transportation. Today, we will explore the use of electric vehicles in public transport.
The transformation to electric vehicles in public transport is being supported by incentives and regulations, aiming to establish sustainable systems, achieve net-zero emission targets, reduce noise and air pollution, increase energy efficiency, and lower operating and maintenance costs.
The European Commission's Clean Vehicles Directive encourages the adoption of low and zero-emission vehicles by promoting clean mobility solutions in public procurement processes. For example, between 2021-2026, 22.5% of new buses purchased through public tenders must be zero-emission vehicles.
Many U.S. states and Canada have committed to supporting the clean bus market by 2030. Some states like California have set a zero-emission target for all new bus purchases by 2029.
China is a leader in the electric vehicle transformation in public transport, supported by central and local government policies, and is also promoting clean vehicle transformation by introducing hydrogen-powered vehicles in some cities.
Turkey: In Turkey, many cities are testing and increasing the use of electric vehicles in both rail systems and bus fleets. With the rise of domestic manufacturers that can compete in the international market, it is expected that this transformation will expand in the coming years. The 11th Development Plan also outlines support and regulations for the widespread use of domestically produced electric buses in urban and intercity transport. Furthermore, within the framework of the Paris Agreement, Turkey aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2053, and it is stated that energy infrastructure and technologies will be determined based on vehicle needs to support the widespread use of electric buses.
How is the market growing?
Urban buses, with their relatively fixed driving routes and shorter daily travel distances, have a strong potential for electrification and are leading the growth in electric bus sales. According to the International Energy Agency's Global Electric Vehicle 2024 Report, battery electric vehicles accounted for 43% of urban bus sales in the European Union in 2023, showing clear progress toward the proposed target of 100% zero-emission urban bus sales. Market forecasts predict that by 2030, 75% of all new bus sales will be electric, and electric buses will make up about 50% of the total bus market.
System Approach to Electric Vehicle Transformation
The transformation to electric vehicles in public transport requires a system approach that goes beyond vehicle procurement and involves multiple components and stakeholders. This approach includes strategy, charging infrastructure, operations, vehicles, funding, and stakeholders (such as vehicle manufacturers, public transport operators and authorities, charging station producers, etc.).
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