🚍 Cermonews #13 | Demand-Based Planning

Parabol
6 days ago
6 min read

🚌 Hello from the 13th issue of Cermonews! 👋🏻

As we approach the final issues of 2025, we continue—now for the 13th time—with the same excitement and spirit of sharing to explore different topics in public transport. In this issue, we have an important yet enjoyable read for the end of your week: a growing need in public transport—Demand-Based Planning.

Urban mobility needs are not static; they constantly change by hour, day, season, holidays, and events. Some routes experience heavy demand while others operate with lower utilization. These differences reveal our cities’ mobility needs and patterns. For the public transport authorities managing these systems, the key question is how to adapt to this shifting demand.

That is precisely why planning must be flexible and demand-responsive. To provide service where, when, and at the frequency passengers truly need it, demand-based planning takes center stage.

In this issue, we unpack what “demand” means in public transport, how it can be measured, and how the resulting data can be integrated step-by-step into planning processes. We also address common misconceptions and share examples of how a demand-based approach can be implemented using the Cermoni planning module.

As always, you’ll find rich content in our “News from Us,” “Cermopedia,” and “Behind the Scenes” sections. ⚙️🚏

Enjoy the read!

🧩 What Is Demand-Based Planning?

Effective public transport planning rests on real user demand in the field and enables efficient scheduling of services, vehicles, and drivers. Demand-based planning is a planning approach in which decisions on fleet size, vehicle type, and service frequency are taken in line with observed demand.

The aim is to ensure sufficient capacity in peak times and locations while using resources more efficiently on lower-demand routes. This raises user satisfaction and optimizes operating costs.

Demand-based planning is not merely “adding more trips.” It means delivering the right service at the right time, in the right place, at the right frequency. This enables moving more passengers with the same fleet, reducing empty trips, and improving the passenger experience.

🧭 Demand Data: How Is It Measured and Used in Public Transport?

Demand in public transport is measured by analyzing when, from where, and to where people travel throughout the day. Smart-card data, GPS traces, stop-level boarding records, and mobility data from mobile apps can all be used. For example, by examining when passengers tap in, which vehicles they board, and where they alight, cities can reveal mobility patterns. Using AI-based models, it becomes possible to identify which areas have higher demand at different times of day—allowing systems to be planned based on data-driven analysis rather than assumptions.

This demand information sits at the core of transit planning. When we can answer “Who travels, from where, when, and to where?” accurately, every planning decision—route design, service frequency, departure times, and vehicle assignment—becomes more rational. In practice, services can be increased at peak times and redeployed to other routes during low-demand periods, improving resource use and reducing passenger waiting times.

⚠️ Common Misconceptions About Demand-Based Planning

❌ “Demand-based planning means adding more vehicles.”

➡️ Reality: The opposite. The goal is to serve more passengers with optimal resources. It’s not “more trips always,” but “trips at the right time.” Efficiency and passenger satisfaction can rise together.

❌ “High load factors mean demand is being met.”

➡️ Reality: High load does not always equal good service. Peak-hour crowding is expected; consistently high load at all hours often signals that services are not planned flexibly enough in line with demand.

❌ “Demand-oriented systems only apply to DRT (Demand-Responsive Transit).”

➡️ Reality: DRT is one application, not the only one. Conventional fixed-route networks can also be improved using demand analysis. DRT is an outcome of demand-oriented thinking, not its sole pathway.

🚍 Demand-Based Planning with Cermoni | How to Raise Satisfaction While Reducing Costs

Cermoni is an intelligent decision-support solution that shapes public transport systems with demand data and treats planning as an end-to-end chain. The goal is not just to produce a timetable, but to optimize urban mobility across all components.

In Cermoni, integrated analysis of multiple data sources generates demand insights that drive the entire chain: set route frequencies → schedule trips → assign vehicles → generate driver shifts. As a result, every link in the chain operates consistently, in balance, and as a whole.

Cermoni’s optimization-based design produces the most efficient plan within defined constraints (e.g., fleet size, driver hours). This does not mean simply “more” or “fewer” trips—it means service in the right place at the right time. Satisfaction rises at peak times, and unnecessary costs are avoided during low-demand periods.

This turns planning from an operational task into a strategic process. In a system shaped by passenger needs, resources are used more efficiently and service quality is consistently maintained.

Without this integrated structure, departure times would be set without demand data, vehicles would run with mismatched capacity, and shifts would become inefficient. Some routes would run empty while others experience excessive crowding. Because Cermoni’s modules operate in concert, such imbalances are prevented.

The outcome? An optimized, sustainable, and passenger-friendly public transport system that is responsive to changing city demand.

🎥 New Cermopedia Episode: Demand-Based Public Transport Planning

In the new episode of Cermopedia, we explain Demand-Based Public Transport Planning in a clear and accessible way, answering:

How is demand analyzed and forecast?
How is demand data integrated into planning processes?
What benefits does this approach bring to cities?

Discover how data-driven decisions are shaped in planning—in about 2.5 minutes. 📈

Cermopedia continues to explain frequently used technical concepts in a way everyone can understand. Stay tuned for new episodes! 🎥📚

News from Us 📰

🚶‍♀️ At MARUF, we both discussed and walked for road safety!

This year’s Marmara Urban Forum (MARUF25) once again brought stakeholders together to make cities more accessible, safe, and sustainable. As a partner, Parabol took part both in the field and on stage.

📍 First, within the SAFELY project, we organized a “Walking Workshop” to observe pedestrian safety in the field. Together with participants, we mapped risky points along selected routes in Istanbul using our Mapalyse app. Elif Çora and Tuğçe Işık from our team led the design and implementation.

🎤 In the session “Reaching Sustainability: Shared Experiences,” our Marketing Director Tuğçe Işık shared Parabol’s lessons from SKUP (SUMP) projects and road-safety work under the SAFELY Project—highlighting the value of data-driven mobility solutions through concrete examples and impacts.

📍 We Joined Konya’s SAFELY Road Safety Days under EIT UM

Supported by EIT Urban Mobility, the SAFELY Project brought data-driven analyses into practice at the Road Safety Days in Konya. Concrete measures to enhance pedestrian safety have begun in high-risk pilot areas identified in Konya and Sarajevo.

📍 During site visits in Konya, partners examined measures implemented at locations identified through SAFELY. Presentations covered intelligent transport systems, vulnerable road users, and safe route planning in urban areas.

These activities showed how SAFELY’s analytical insights translate into real interventions—making safer, more accessible cities possible.

🔜 Next stop: Sarajevo! Follow us for the next set of field implementations.

Behind the Scenes 🙌🏻

In every issue, we introduce a teammate and the experts behind innovation in public transport.

This time, meet Mert Uslu, our Customer Success Manager, who maintains direct contact with cities, solves questions quickly, and approaches each client with careful attention to improve the Cermoni user experience! 💼

“As Customer Success Manager at Parabol, I work to ensure that Cermoni users can employ the product effectively and efficiently with all its features. My goal is to guarantee a seamless, stable experience while helping users get maximum value. Understanding needs, solving issues rapidly, and conveying the product’s benefits accurately are central to my role. By closely tracking customer processes, I integrate Cermoni’s capabilities into daily operations through targeted guidance and training. In every interaction, I go beyond immediate fixes to support users’ long-term goals. I also build strong relationships, conveying needs and feedback clearly to our teams. Through training, usage analytics, and proactive communication, I help make Cermoni an indispensable tool for users.”

🚍 What Would Change with Demand-Based Planning?

To build a more efficient, fair, and passenger-friendly transit system, we must ask the right questions:

Where are passengers coming from and going to?

At what times does demand rise on which routes?

In this issue, we examined what demand-based planning is, how it is implemented, and how it supports decision-making.

So, what do you think would change in your city if demand-based planning were adopted?

📩 If you’d like to share your observations, suggestions, or the challenges you face in your city, we’re always here.

We welcome your feedback. 🙌

See you in the next issue. 👋